Water FractalTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9%
avg ELO +5.7 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1245
· median 1245
· range 1245–1245
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1120
Q3 1245
1637
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
